This study never made a trade. Tokens that failed screening used up the hourly admission slots, so no token reached the watch list. The trading idea remains untested. It asked whether a newly pooled token could recover after its first selloff.
This separate $1,000 paper account asks whether external recovery after a new token's first selloff can support staged entry and exit.
Reads
Verified migrations, supported pool reserves, reported trading activity and reconciled holder balances.
Records
Eligibility and rejection checks, staged paper purchases, tranche sales, unrecovered cost and remaining inventory.
Graduation recovery
Looks for
A verified new pool after a substantial selloff, quieter volume, a higher short-term low and improving external prices.
Acts when
The fixed price, activity, liquidity and holder checks pass. Later purchases require fresh checks and additional external recovery; our simulated buying never creates the recovery signal.
Why it might fail
Few pools may be supported, holder data may be incomplete, and thin liquidity may prevent an exit.
How the stages work
Buy in up to three stages, capped at $100 per project and up to 3% of supply. Sell the first third on a later eligible observation after accumulation, the second at twice the first-purchase market cap, and retain the remainder with protective exits. The budget can result in much less than 3% ownership.
The first sale is not automatic cost recovery. Cash returned must cover the entire original cost before that claim is valid. Protective exits and account loss limits remain; unsupported pools and unresolved exits stay visible.
THE HYPOTHESIS
What we’re asking.
After a verified graduation and a substantial selloff, improving external prices, activity, liquidity and holder distribution might justify a staged paper entry.
WHY THIS TEST
A manageable question.
The supply target is configurable between separate tests. This design targets up to 3% of supply but caps total paper spending at $100 per project, so it may acquire much less.
FROM AN IDEA TO A DECISION
How the study works.
01
Verify the market
Confirm the migration, mint and pool. Unsupported reserve or reward modes are excluded; a pool we cannot model is not a valid opportunity.
02
Wait for external recovery
Require a selloff, quieter reported volume, a higher short-term low, improving prices and fresh holder/liquidity checks. Our own hypothetical purchases never count as momentum.
03
Build in stages
Plan three purchases with time and external-recovery requirements between them. Fresh screens and total-budget limits still apply at every stage.
04
Measure cash actually returned
Sell in thirds under the fixed rules and retain a runner with protective exits. Selling the first third does not automatically recover the initial investment.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE INTERPRETATION
The limits belong beside the idea.
At an unchanged price, selling one-third returns roughly one-third of the original value before costs. Recovering the entire cost from that fraction needs roughly three times the average entry price before execution costs.
A token’s market capitalization is price multiplied by supply. It is not cash in the pool, money raised, or the amount a holder can withdraw.
Holder addresses are not people. Linked wallets, manipulation and other traders’ reactions to a large order remain uncertain. A staged buy is not permission to manufacture demand.
Mayhem, virtual-reserve and holder-reward pools are excluded in this version. Unsupported modes may prevent enough eligible observations to test the thesis.
Results are private for now. Our running strategies use market data from the Kraken exchange, and we're confirming we're allowed to republish it. The earlier studies' results also remain unpublished. Each page shows the rules and what happened, without account figures. A hidden result is neither a good nor a bad sign.
WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN NEXT
What would a fair retest need?
A fair retest would record which limit rejected each token and prevent rejected tokens from blocking others. No retest is planned yet.
